Economists must think broader – or risk becoming irrelevant

Economists should have taken a more nuanced approach to the row between the US and China. Photograph: Damir Sagolj/Reuters The economics profession took a beating after most of its leading practitioners failed to predict the 2008 global financial crisis and it has been struggling to recover ever since. Not only were the years after the crash marked by unusually low, unequal growth; now we are witnessing a growing list of economic and financial phenomena that economists cannot readily explain. Like the Queen, who famously asked in November 2008 why nobody had seen…

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The End of Economics?

In 1998, as the Asian financial crisis was ravaging what had been some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, the New Yorker ran an article describing the international rescue efforts. It profiled the super-diplomat of the day, a big-idea man the Economist had recently likened to Henry Kissinger. The New Yorker went further, noting that when he arrived in Japan in June, this American official was treated “as if he were General [Douglas] MacArthur.” In retrospect, such reverence seems surprising, given that the man in question, Larry Summers, was a disheveled, somewhat awkward nerd then…

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The world’s biggest economies are moving deeper into a slowdown: Report

Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points. The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday. The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the US and Germany,…

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As world economy stumbles into 2019, eyes turn to China

Ten years after China helped stave off the threat of a global depression with a huge stimulus plan, investors are looking once again towards Beijing as the world economy heads for a slowdown, or worse, in 2019. Booming China has accounted for about a third of the growth in the global economy in recent years. So recent signs that it is losing momentum is unsettling when the U.S. boom, turbo-charged by President Donald Trump’s tax cuts of 2017, seems to have peaked and Europe’s heavyweights are stalling. China’s slowdown is…

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Loan waiver dole populism not a solution in Jaipur: Economists

The previous BJP government in Rajasthan had announced waiver up to ~50,000 loan for 30 lakh farmers costing the state exchequer ~8,000 crore(HT File) The Congress government’s plans for farm loan waiver and unemployment dole has not found favour with economists who say these are mere populist measures and the government needs to address the root cause of the problem. The government announced Rs 18,000 crore loan waiver for over 40 lakh farmers who have taken loans from cooperative, rural, nationalised and commercial banks. This is 9.1% of the state’s total…

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Indian-American Gita Gopinath joins IMF as its first female chief economist

Prominent Indian-American economist Gita Gopinath has joined as the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, becoming the first woman to occupy the top post at the global lender. Gopinath, 47, joined last week at a time, when she believes the world is experiencing a retreat from globalisation, posing challenges to multilateral institutions. The John Zwaanstra professor of International Studies and Economics at Harvard University, Gopinath, a US citizen, succeeds Maurice (Maury) Obstfeld as Economic Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Research Department. Obstfeld retired December 31. Announcing her appointment…

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India forecasts economic growth at 7.2 per cent in 2018-19

India’s GDP grew at 7.2% in 2018-19, according to the first advanced estimates released by the Central Statistical Office on Monday, the fastest rate of growth since 2016-17, marking a recovery in economic activity from the twin disruptions of demonetisation and Goods and Services Tax. To be sure, these figures are forecasts, as the first advanced estimate figures are based on about two quarters of actual economic data. While the 2018-19 growth is 55 basis points more than the 2017-18 figure, it is 20 basis points less than the RBI’s…

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India likely to surpass UK in the world’s largest economy rankings: Report

India is likely to surpass the United Kingdom in the world’s largest economy rankings in 2019, according to a report by global consultancy firm PwC. As per the report, while the UK and France have regularly switched places owing to similar levels of development and roughly equal populations, India’s climb up the rankings is likely to be permanent. PwC’s Global Economy Watch report projects real GDP growth of 1.6 per cent for the UK, 1.7 per cent for France and 7.6 per cent for India in 2019. “India and France…

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